Savage speculates that President Trump may have discussed a sphere-of-influence understanding with China: U.S. freedom of action in Cuba in exchange for Chinese leeway over Taiwan. He argues Cuba has been devastated by decades of military-backed communist dictatorship, leaving people desperate for medicine and food, and warns the U.S. must avoid an economic collapse that could trigger another Mariel-style migrant crisis. He suggests the U.S. appears to be moving toward a Venezuela-style playbook of removing Cuba's leadership, then working with friendlier leaders to rebuild the economy, revive tourism, and spark massive investment. He contrasts this with the Taiwan risk, mentions rumors of moving Taiwan's chip industry to Arizona, and concludes Americans mainly care about pocketbook issues—gas, bread, and inflation.

Savage weighs who is winning the Iran-US war "chess game." He explains how Iran aims to hurt Trump electorally while losing about $450 million a day in oil revenue, turning the standoff into mutual damage and a test of how far Tehran can push without being bombed. He reveals that the wars in Iran and Ukraine have drained U.S. munitions. He then warns that the Iran conflict could cost Republicans the House, Senate, and presidency, ushering in far-left leadership. Savage says Trump is being pushed by advisers and foreign allies to act too soon; he urges Trump to "declare victory," negotiate quietly through the midterms, and strike harder only later if necessary, comparing Iran's fanaticism to wartime Japan.