The Senate map just got scrambled in a single week. Graham Platner's Maine campaign implodes after a sexual assault allegation, and nearly every Democrat who backed him is now calling for him to step aside before the July 13 deadline. Jacob and Garth break down who replaces him (Troy Jackson? Janet Mills?) and whether Susan Collins is now the safest incumbent on the board.

Then: Michigan tightens dramatically after McMorrow drops out, with a fresh poll showing El-Sayed and Stevens nearly tied heading into the August 4 primary. Plus the Mitch McConnell health mystery and what a Kentucky opening could mean for control of the chamber, Ken Paxton spending July 4th in London, and why the World Cup turned into a political headache for Trump.

All the market reads inside: where PredictIt traders have Maine, Michigan, and Senate control right now.

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

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It's a full Senate polling roundup — every race that matters, poll by poll, checked against where PredictIt traders actually have the money.

Texas is a dead heat: Paxton and Talarico tied 47-47 in the NYT/Siena poll, with real signs of Paxton weakness under the surface. Maine tells a different story — Collins holds a steady edge while Platner's campaign gets buried under a staggering outside-money gap ($4.3M vs $440K in a five-day span). Michigan's Democratic primary is effectively over, with El-Sayed running away and traders having already called it. Plus, a Florida poll that traders think is flat-out fake, the generic ballot tightening toward Republicans, and why Jacob likes buying Republican on the Senate control market right now.

Then: Garth's case that the smartest Democratic play heading into August is to get out of the way and let Trump be Trump.

Chapters:

00:00 Colorado results and the anti-incumbent wave

06:30 SCOTUS: Alito retirement watch + FECA caps overturned

15:40 Texas Senate: Paxton vs. Talarico (dead heat)

22:45 Maine: Collins vs. Platner and the money bomb

30:20 Michigan: El-Sayed, Stevens, McMorrow

35:00 Generic ballot + the Senate control market read

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#Senate2026 #Polling #PredictionMarkets

Mamdani went 3-for-3 last night — sweeping all three New York City congressional primaries and ousting two incumbents, including Hakeem Jeffries-backed Adriano Espaillat in NY-13. Brad Lander flattened Dan Goldman in NY-10. Claire Valdez dominated Antonio Reynoso in NY-7. The left now has a kingmaker. But the real result nobody is covering: Cait Conley in NY-17 — the West Point grad, former NSC counterterrorism director, and MIT/Harvard alum who just became the Democrats' best shot at flipping a swing seat in November.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

00:00 — Mamdani sweeps NYC: Brad Lander, Claire Valdez, and Darializa Avila Chevalier all win

08:00 — NY-17: Cait Conley wins — Democrats at 87¢ to flip Mike Lawler's seat

12:00 — NY-12: Micah Lasher beats Alex Bores, Schlossberg hits 11%, Conway at 6%

16:00 — The Iran deal is in the garbage — and we called Israel as the wildcard last week

20:00 — War powers resolution passes the Senate: three months too late, but fine

23:00 — Housing bill passes bipartisan — Byron Donalds' "no" vote and what it signals for his Florida governor race

26:00 — MTG and Tucker Carlson leave the GOP: welcome to the political wilderness

28:00 — Trump approval at 40% — does America 250 paper over the cracks?

32:00 — The Reflecting Pool disaster: algae, a $14M contractor, and government waste

36:00 — July calendar: jobs report, CPI, Fed rate decision, and the World Cup wild card

Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics.

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