Graham Platner won the Maine Democratic primary last night with 77% of the vote — Is the Market Overreacting to the Platner Scandal? We broke down the thesis weeks ago: scandals with diminishing returns, outsider energy in a fighter's environment, and a Democratic electorate ready to act like toddlers when told who not to vote for. Democrats are now at 59¢ to beat Susan Collins in November.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

00:00 — Trump at MSG: the booing, the suit, and what it tells you about the secret New Yorker

06:00 — California's two-week vote count: sus, legal, and a structural problem only one state has

10:00 — Maine Senate: Platner wins, thesis confirmed, Collins vs. the oyster farmer is on

18:00 — Why scandals with diminishing returns make Platner the Democrats' Trump

22:00 — Iran: Trump says "deal is close" 38 times, then fires again — and the market for that quote

25:00 — Inflation up most since April 2023: what it does to the Senate market at 64¢ for Republicans

27:00 — Texas Senate AI ad, Talarico shifts on trans surgery, Tarico vs. Cornyn tightening

29:00 — House market breakdown: Dems at 71¢, Senate at 40¢, or take the combo at 36¢?

31:00 — LA mayor runoff: Bass wins easy, Ramen too progressive even for LA, Spencer Pratt voters stay home

34:00 — World Cup picks: Jacob takes South Korea, Garth has a team in every group

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